Blackjack Odds: Bust Chances for Every Hand and Dealer Card
The dealer busts most often when showing a 5 or 6, about 42% of the time, and least often when showing an ace, about 17%. You bust on the next card 31% of the time when you hit 12, 62% when you hit 16, and never when you hit 11 or less. These are exact figures for a 6-deck game where the dealer stands on all 17s, after the dealer has checked for blackjack.
Keep this page next to the basic strategy chart: almost every rule on it comes from the two tables below.
How the dealer finishes, by up card
The dealer must hit on 16 or less and stand on 17 or more, so every hand ends on 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 or a bust. Here's how often each happens.
| Dealer shows | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 35.4% |
| 3 | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 37.4% |
| 4 | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 39.6% |
| 5 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 41.8% |
| 6 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 42.3% |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 12.9% | 36.0% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.4% |
| 9 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 35.2% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.9% |
| 10 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 36.8% | 3.8% | 23.0% |
| Ace | 18.8% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 7.7% | 16.7% |
Rows for 10 and ace exclude dealer blackjacks: the dealer checks first, so if you're still playing, you know there isn't one.
Three things the table explains
Why you stand on 12 to 16 against a 4, 5 or 6. The dealer busts around 40% of the time from those cards. Your stiff hand wins every one of those, so the risk of busting it yourself isn't worth taking.
Why you hit 12 to 16 against a 7 or higher. From a 7 the dealer makes 17 or better about 74% of the time; from a 10 or ace, over 76% and 83%. A 16 that stands only wins when the dealer busts, about one hand in four.
Why 7 is the line. Look at the diagonal: the dealer's most likely total is the up card plus 10. A 7 most often becomes 17, an 8 becomes 18, and so on. That's why 18 is a strong hand against a 7 but only average against a 9.
Your chance of busting when you hit
This is the chance the next card puts you over 21 on a hard hand (no ace counted as 11). With six decks the exact figure varies slightly with your cards; these are within about one point.
| Your hard total | Cards that bust you | Chance of busting |
|---|---|---|
| 11 or less | None | 0% |
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 31% |
| 13 | 9 and above | 38% |
| 14 | 8 and above | 46% |
| 15 | 7 and above | 54% |
| 16 | 6 and above | 62% |
| 17 | 5 and above | 69% |
| 18 | 4 and above | 77% |
| 19 | 3 and above | 85% |
| 20 | 2 and above | 92% |
Soft hands never bust on the next card: the ace drops to 1 instead. See What is a soft 17?
Putting both tables together: 16 against a 10
The most dreaded hand in blackjack. Stand, and you win only when the dealer busts, about 23% of the time. Hit, and you bust 62% of the time, but the other 38% you often make 17 to 21 and have a real chance. Worked through, hitting loses slightly less than standing, which is why the chart says hit. Neither option is good; the goal is to lose a little less.
How often does the dealer bust overall?
Averaged across all up cards (tens are four times as common as any other rank), the dealer busts about 29% of the time when they play out a hand. You bust far less often if you follow basic strategy, but you act first: if you bust, you lose even when the dealer busts afterwards. That order of play is where the house edge comes from.
How we calculated this
The dealer table is an exact calculation, not a simulation: every possible sequence of cards from a 6-deck shoe with the dealer's up card removed, weighted by its probability, with the dealer standing on all 17s and blackjacks excluded for 10 and ace. Your bust table uses the share of each rank in a full shoe. These match the rules at House21; at a table where the dealer hits soft 17, the dealer busts slightly more often from a 6 (43.9%) and an ace (20.1%), but also turns many soft 17s into 18 to 21, which is why that rule is worse for you overall.
Want to check them against real play? Count dealer busts from a 6 over a few hundred hands in the lobby. Is online blackjack rigged? explains what to look for.